Thursday, May 14, 2009

Yield Curve

CrossingWallstreet on the yield curve as the best forecaster out there. I will still check his statement that: "Probably the most fascinating stat is that all of the stock market’s net capital gains have come when the 10-year yield is 65 or more basis points above the 90-day yield (that happens about 70% of the time). The yield curve hasn’t been that positive in 15 months.

Anything less than 65 basis points, including a negative yield curve, works out to a net equity return of a Blutarsky. Zero Point Zero."

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