Sunday, November 21, 2010

Peak Oil?

The Oil Man asks the question and posts this two similar charts.

1. From the IEA (International Enegy Association that uses the EIA data as a main source)

2. From the EIA (the US Enegy Information Administration)

Both charts tell a similar story, oil production forecasts have been constantly overestimated. Back in 2000 the EIA was estimating ca 93m bd in 2010 vs the actual 86m production. Further out the gap gets bigger. As time passes estimates are reduced downwards and with demand fairly inelastic and growing in emerging markets, prices may be sustained at high level.