"First homes, then cars, and last business equipment"

CalculatedRisk created the following tables based on a paper by Prof Edward E. Leamer from UCLA tackling the temporal order of GDP components.

When Weakness Typically Starts

Pre-Recession	Coincident with Recession	Lags Start of Recession
Residential Investment	PCE	Investment, non-residential Structures
	Investment, Equipment & Software
	Unemployment

When Recovery Typically Starts

During Recession	Lags End of Recession	Significantly Lags End of Recession
Residential Investment	Investment, Equipment & Software	Investment, non-residential Structures
PCE	Unemployment(1)

CR quotes: "The first item to soften and the first to turn back up is residential investment. The temporal ordering of the spending weakness is: residential investment, consumer durables, consumer nondurables and consumer services before the recession, and then, once the recession officially commences, business spending on the short-lived assets, equipment and software, and, last, business spending on the long-lived assets. The ordering in the recovery is exactly the same."

Will homebuilding and retail be among the first sectors to recover from the current bear market?