Thursday, August 18, 2011

PGA and Statistics

Came across this interesting collection of papers on golf statistics.
The Wharton paper on Loss Aversion is very interesting. Golf pros put better for par than for birdie. A bias that cost the best players 1.2m in prize money a year.
Pros also make 99.2% of the puts of 3 feet or less, pros make less than 50% of puts longer than 8 feet.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

This looks so easy

Oil Demand exceeds production

Don't blame speculators for the high oil price. Here is a chart from the economist showing how oil consumption now exceeds production.

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Oil Copper Spread

Prof Krugman highlights the following chart:

Copper is mainly driven by economic factors while oil both by eco and geopolitical risks and both commodities now seem to tell a different story.

The Importance of Saudi Arabia

Ecnobrowser has an other excellent post showing how SA had been able to increase oil production in time of high shortfall elsewhere (Iraq War 1, Venezuelan strike in 02, Iraq war 2).
With the oil price at 106 "only" he doubts they will produce much more than in July 08 when the price was at 147.

Friday, February 11, 2011

China's growth compared

Great chart highlighted by Paul Kedrosky. China just slightly outgrowing other countries at similar stage of developments though not by much. GS expects a path similar to Taiwan's.

Thursday, February 10, 2011

Economic Data

Calculated Risk has an other extremely useful post summarizing and ranking economic data.
The list is here and he asks: "Another FAQ: Why does CR give everything away for free? Because ." Much appreciated.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Economics Best Of

Prof Krugman mentions the economist's best of, the top 20 articles of the AER's first 100 years.
Key takeaways and articles

Monday, February 7, 2011

Here we go again - Soaring Food Prices

Prof Krugman attributes the recent surge in food price to the declining supply following weak harvests in Russia. Global per capita grain production is down 5% in the past 2 years while demand is growing. With low demand elasticity large prices rises are necessary to curb consumption.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Historical Oil Shocks

With Oil above 90 USD here is a timely paper from prof Hamilton. Added to the reading pile. The prof has a summary here.
He fears we may soon have to add a line to the following table.

Summary of significant events since World War II. Source: Hamilton (2011).
Business cycle
Nov 47-Dec 47 Nov 47-Jan 48
strong demand,
supply constraints
Nov 48
May 52 Jun 53
yes strike,
controls lifted
Jul 53
Nov 56-Dec 56
Jan 57-Feb 57
Suez Crisis Aug 57
none none no --- Apr 60
none Feb 69 (7%)
Nov 70 (8%)
no strike, strong demand,
supply constraints
Dec 69
Jun 73

Dec 73-Mar 74
Apr 73-Sep 73
Nov 73-Feb 74
yes strong demand,
supply constraints,
OAPEC embargo
Nov 73
May 79-Jul 79 May 79-Jan 80
yes Iranian revolution Jan 80
none Nov 80-Feb 81
yes Iran-Iraq War,
controls lifted
Jul 81
none Aug 90-Oct 90
no Gulf War I Jul 90
none Dec 99-Nov 00
no strong demand Mar 01
none Nov 02-Mar 03
no Venezuela unrest,
Gulf War II
none Feb 07-Jun 08
no strong demand,
stagnant supply
Dec 07

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Outlook 2011

It s the time for this again. Bloomberg lists the strategists forecasts for 2011.

Firm                 Strategist           2011 Close   2011 EPS
Bank of America David Bianco 1,400 $93.00
Bank of Montreal* Ben Joyce 1,350 $90.00
Barclays Barry Knapp 1,420 $91.00
Citigroup** Tobias Levkovich 1,400 $96.50
Credit Suisse Douglas Cliggott 1,250 $91.00
Deutsche Bank Binky Chadha 1,550 $96.00
Goldman Sachs David Kostin 1,500 $96.00
HSBC Garry Evans 1,430
JPMorgan Thomas Lee 1,425 $94.00
Morgan Stanley Adam Parker 1,238 $93.00
Oppenheimer Brian Belski 1,325 $88.50
RBC Myles Zyblock $88.00
UBS Jonathan Golub 1,325 $96.00
Mean 1,384 $92.75
Median 1,400 $93.00
High 1,550 $96.50
Low 1,238 $88.00

* BMO’s forecast is a rolling 12-month projection.
** Citigroup’s estimate for S&P 500 profit is from Steven

So roughly 8.5% upisde from current level.

Last year's forecasts
were pretty much spot on. With Median 2012e EPS currently at 102 it is not unreasonable to expect a new record for the S&P within the next 12-18 months. Time will tell.