PGA and Statistics

Came across this interesting collection of papers on golf statistics.
The Wharton paper on Loss Aversion is very interesting. Golf pros put better for par than for birdie. A bias that cost the best players 1.2m in prize money a year.
Pros also make 99.2% of the puts of 3 feet or less, pros make less than 50% of puts longer than 8 feet.

Ray Dalio - a long profile

From the New Yoker

Soros Retiring

Bloomberg has the story.

This looks so easy

Oil Demand exceeds production

Don't blame speculators for the high oil price. Here is a chart from the economist showing how oil consumption now exceeds production.

Oil Copper Spread

Prof Krugman highlights the following chart:

Copper is mainly driven by economic factors while oil both by eco and geopolitical risks and both commodities now seem to tell a different story.

The Importance of Saudi Arabia

Ecnobrowser has an other excellent post showing how SA had been able to increase oil production in time of high shortfall elsewhere (Iraq War 1, Venezuelan strike in 02, Iraq war 2).
With the oil price at 106 "only" he doubts they will produce much more than in July 08 when the price was at 147.

China's growth compared

Great chart highlighted by Paul Kedrosky. China just slightly outgrowing other countries at similar stage of developments though not by much. GS expects a path similar to Taiwan's.

Economic Data

Calculated Risk has an other extremely useful post summarizing and ranking economic data.
The list is here and he asks: "Another FAQ: Why does CR give everything away for free? Because ." Much appreciated.

Economics Best Of

Prof Krugman mentions the economist's best of, the top 20 articles of the AER's first 100 years.
Key takeaways and articles

Here we go again - Soaring Food Prices

Prof Krugman attributes the recent surge in food price to the declining supply following weak harvests in Russia. Global per capita grain production is down 5% in the past 2 years while demand is growing. With low demand elasticity large prices rises are necessary to curb consumption.

Historical Oil Shocks

With Oil above 90 USD here is a timely paper from prof Hamilton. Added to the reading pile. The prof has a summary here.
He fears we may soon have to add a line to the following table.

Summary of significant events since World War II. Source: Hamilton (2011).

Gasoline shortages	Price increase	Price controls	Key factors	Business cycle peak
Nov 47-Dec 47	Nov 47-Jan 48 (37%)	no (threatened)	strong demand, supply constraints	Nov 48
May 52	Jun 53 (10%)	yes	strike, controls lifted	Jul 53
Nov 56-Dec 56 (Europe)	Jan 57-Feb 57 (9%)	yes (Europe)	Suez Crisis	Aug 57
none	none	no	---	Apr 60
none	Feb 69 (7%) Nov 70 (8%)	no	strike, strong demand, supply constraints	Dec 69
Jun 73 Dec 73-Mar 74	Apr 73-Sep 73 (16%) Nov 73-Feb 74 (51%)	yes	strong demand, supply constraints, OAPEC embargo	Nov 73
May 79-Jul 79	May 79-Jan 80 (57%)	yes	Iranian revolution	Jan 80
none	Nov 80-Feb 81 (45%)	yes	Iran-Iraq War, controls lifted	Jul 81
none	Aug 90-Oct 90 (93%)	no	Gulf War I	Jul 90
none	Dec 99-Nov 00 (38%)	no	strong demand	Mar 01
none	Nov 02-Mar 03 (28%)	no	Venezuela unrest, Gulf War II	none
none	Feb 07-Jun 08 (145%)	no	strong demand, stagnant supply	Dec 07

Outlook 2011

It s the time for this again. Bloomberg lists the strategists forecasts for 2011.

Firm                 Strategist           2011 Close   2011 EPS
===============================================================
Bank of America      David Bianco           1,400       $93.00
Bank of Montreal*    Ben Joyce              1,350       $90.00
Barclays             Barry Knapp            1,420       $91.00
Citigroup**          Tobias Levkovich       1,400       $96.50
Credit Suisse        Douglas Cliggott       1,250       $91.00
Deutsche Bank        Binky Chadha           1,550       $96.00
Goldman Sachs        David Kostin           1,500       $96.00
HSBC                 Garry Evans            1,430
JPMorgan             Thomas Lee             1,425       $94.00
Morgan Stanley       Adam Parker            1,238       $93.00
Oppenheimer          Brian Belski           1,325       $88.50
RBC                  Myles Zyblock                      $88.00
UBS                  Jonathan Golub         1,325       $96.00
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean                                        1,384       $92.75
Median                                      1,400       $93.00
High                                        1,550       $96.50
Low                                         1,238       $88.00

  * BMO’s forecast is a rolling 12-month projection.
  ** Citigroup’s estimate for S&P 500 profit is from Steven

So roughly 8.5% upisde from current level.

Last year's forecasts were pretty much spot on. With Median 2012e EPS currently at 102 it is not unreasonable to expect a new record for the S&P within the next 12-18 months. Time will tell.