Wednesday, December 31, 2008


Need to read this, conclusion: “I can describe the Russian economy as water in a sieve,” Yulia L. Latynina, a commentator on Echo of Moscow radio, said of the chronic waste in Russian industry.
“Everybody was thinking Russia had succeeded, and they were wondering, how do you keep water in a sieve?” Ms. Latynina said. “When the input of water is greater than the output, the sieve is full. Everybody was thinking it was a miracle. The sieve is full! But when there is a drop in the water supply, the sieve is again empty very quickly.”

Tuesday, December 30, 2008


Travelling in China, I should have read this before leaving. Lots of talk about tougher economic conditions. Shenzhen, a big hub of export oriented industries, appears particularly affected with real estate prices down sharply year on year. Coming back after a few years it is hard to notice the slowdown. The city seems so much richer and more modern. In Shanghai and Shenzhen most taxis have been upgraded to "Santana 3000" models and I did not remember the traffic beeing so bad. Beware of silent electric scooters' attacks!

Monday, December 29, 2008

Oil Price - "The price is not right"

A very interesting article on the oil price dynamics.

Also remember to read the latest version of "understanding crude oil prices".

Sunday, December 28, 2008

Outlook 2009

Here is a summary of 2009 forecasts for the S&P500.

Targets for 2009 range from 950 to 1250 with an average of 1045, up almost 20% from today's level.

To be taken with a grain of salt though as 2008 forecasts indicate.

Saturday, December 27, 2008

Tracking the bailout

An interesting overview of the recipients of the US$700bn bailout can be found here:

Bailoutsleuth provides more background information.

Going forward check back on this interesting project: