Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Bull Market Ahead?

After the run we've witnessed in equity markets since March 2009 Dr. Hussman provides a verty interesting market commentary where he explains: "Simply put, secular bull markets begin at valuations that are associated with subsequent 10-year market returns near 20% annually. By contrast, secular bear markets begin at valuations like we observe at present."
Visually based on the simple formula Shorthand 10-year total return estimate = 1.06 * (15/ShillerPE)^(1/10) – 1 + dividend yield(decimal).
Hussman explains further "Presently, the Shiller P/E is 22.7, with a dividend yield of 2.2%. Do the math. A plausible, and historically reliable estimate of 10-year nominal total returns here works out to only 1.06*(15/22.7)^(.10)-1+.022 = 3.9% annually".