Outlook 2012

Here are Wall Street's 2012 forecasts for the S&P 500. Bloomberg has the details here.
The mean forecast is 1348, up a tad more than 7% from the current level. Last year the pros were too optimistic forecasting an 9% rise while the market has been flat in 2011. They thought the S&P 500 would move to 1382 with a 2011 EPS of 93. They now think the market will move less with a 2012 EPS 10% higher. Not a lot of enthusiasm here.
The strategists have been right on the EPS side just a tad cautious but the market did not move with lots of risk aversion. If they are correct on the earnings side again and animal spirits return they could for once be too pessimistic. Let's check that in a year.

Firm                 Strategist           2012 Close   2012 EPS
==============================================================
Bank of America      Savita Subramanian     1,350      $104.50
Bank of Montreal     Ben Joyce              1,325      $102.00
Barclays             Barry Knapp            1,330      $103.00
Citigroup*           Tobias Levkovich       1,375      $101.00
Credit Suisse        Andrew Garthwaite      1,340
Deutsche Bank        Binky Chadha           1,500      $106.00
Goldman Sachs        David Kostin           1,250      $100.00
HSBC                 Garry Evans            1,190
JPMorgan             Thomas Lee             1,430      $105.00
Morgan Stanley       Adam Parker                       $103.20
Oppenheimer          Brian Belski           1,400      $101.00
RBC                  Myles Zyblock                     $101.00
UBS**                Jonathan Golub         1,325       $99.00
Wells Fargo          Gina Martin Adams      1,360      $101.99
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean                                        1,348      $102.31
Median                                      1,345      $102.00
High                                        1,500      $106.00
Low                                         1,190       $99.00

Outlook 2011

It s the time for this again. Bloomberg lists the strategists forecasts for 2011.

Firm                 Strategist           2011 Close   2011 EPS
===============================================================
Bank of America      David Bianco           1,400       $93.00
Bank of Montreal*    Ben Joyce              1,350       $90.00
Barclays             Barry Knapp            1,420       $91.00
Citigroup**          Tobias Levkovich       1,400       $96.50
Credit Suisse        Douglas Cliggott       1,250       $91.00
Deutsche Bank        Binky Chadha           1,550       $96.00
Goldman Sachs        David Kostin           1,500       $96.00
HSBC                 Garry Evans            1,430
JPMorgan             Thomas Lee             1,425       $94.00
Morgan Stanley       Adam Parker            1,238       $93.00
Oppenheimer          Brian Belski           1,325       $88.50
RBC                  Myles Zyblock                      $88.00
UBS                  Jonathan Golub         1,325       $96.00
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean                                        1,384       $92.75
Median                                      1,400       $93.00
High                                        1,550       $96.50
Low                                         1,238       $88.00

  * BMO’s forecast is a rolling 12-month projection.
  ** Citigroup’s estimate for S&P 500 profit is from Steven

So roughly 8.5% upisde from current level.

Last year's forecasts were pretty much spot on. With Median 2012e EPS currently at 102 it is not unreasonable to expect a new record for the S&P within the next 12-18 months. Time will tell.

Outlook 2010

It is this time of the year again... Here is a summary of 2010 forecasts for the S&P500.

Targets for 2010 range from 1120 to 1350 with an average of 1239, up ca 10% from today's level.

As usual to be taken with a grain of salt though last year's bunch of strategists did okay with three of them pretty much on target.

Bloomberg has a similar summary here with the key data pasted below:

The following table presents estimates from strategists at
brokerages for where the S&P 500 will finish 2010 and the
implied percentage change from today’s close of 1,114.11.

Firm               Strategist              Estimate    %Change
Bank of America    David Bianco            1,275         14.4
Barclays           Barry Knapp             1,120          0.5
Citigroup          Tobias Levkovich        1,150          3.2
Credit Suisse      Andrew Garthwaite       1,125          1.0
Deutsche Bank      Binky Chadha            1,260         13.1
Goldman Sachs      David Kostin            1,250         12.2
JPMorgan           Thomas Lee              1,300         16.7
Oppenheimer        Brian Belski            1,300         16.7
RBC                Myles Zyblock           1,200          7.7
UBS                Thomas Doerflinger      1,250         12.2
AVERAGE                                    1,223          9.8

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

Global recession?

So a global recession is a near certainty as mentionned as well by the president of the San Francisco fed in her Jan 15th speech.

Wikipedia has great infos on GDP:

The definition of GDP is here.

The list of countries by GDP (PPP) is here. World GDP was ca 65tn USD in 2007.

The list of countries by GDP (nominal) is here. On this measure world GDP was ca 55tn USD in 2007. A big part of the difference between the two measures is explained by the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China). For example China's nominal GDP was 3.3tn USD while measured on a PPP basis its economy is much larger at 7tn USD.

The list of countries by GDP (PPP) per capita is here

The list of countries by GDP (nominal) per capita is here

Finally this chart tells you what a revolution is really like.

Outlook 2009

Here is a summary of 2009 forecasts for the S&P500.

Targets for 2009 range from 950 to 1250 with an average of 1045, up almost 20% from today's level.


To be taken with a grain of salt though as 2008 forecasts indicate.