Saturday, May 2, 2009

Current Recession Vs Depression

CalculatedRisk has an interesting post on Depression Scares quoting prof. Robert Shiller. He notes the cumulative US GDP decline form peak is 3.3% so far vs down 10% for a depression. He adds further: "Even though the current recession is already one of the worst since 1947, it is only about 1/3 of the way to a depression (commonly defined as a 10% decline in real GDP). Stated another way, to reach a depression, the economy would have to decline at about the same annual rate as the last two quarters for the next four quarters."

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