Monday, March 16, 2009

"What will recovery look like?"

Excellent post from James Hamilton at Econbrowser on "What will recovery look like?"
The post has interesting long term charts of some of the key components of GDP as well as the chart below which "averages" all post WWII recessions (ex the current one).

Average cumulative change in 100 times the natural log of real GDP or its respective component beginning from the business cycle peak for the 10 recessions between 1947 and 2001. Horizontal axis denotes quarters after the peak.

Prof Hamilton also shows the path of the current slump:

And compares it to the big 1981-82 recession:

At least he is mentioning recovery.

The Minneapolis Fed has a nice tool to compare recessions. You can find it here.

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