Outlook 2012

Here are Wall Street's 2012 forecasts for the S&P 500. Bloomberg has the details here.
The mean forecast is 1348, up a tad more than 7% from the current level. Last year the pros were too optimistic forecasting an 9% rise while the market has been flat in 2011. They thought the S&P 500 would move to 1382 with a 2011 EPS of 93. They now think the market will move less with a 2012 EPS 10% higher. Not a lot of enthusiasm here.
The strategists have been right on the EPS side just a tad cautious but the market did not move with lots of risk aversion. If they are correct on the earnings side again and animal spirits return they could for once be too pessimistic. Let's check that in a year.

Firm                 Strategist           2012 Close   2012 EPS
==============================================================
Bank of America      Savita Subramanian     1,350      $104.50
Bank of Montreal     Ben Joyce              1,325      $102.00
Barclays             Barry Knapp            1,330      $103.00
Citigroup*           Tobias Levkovich       1,375      $101.00
Credit Suisse        Andrew Garthwaite      1,340
Deutsche Bank        Binky Chadha           1,500      $106.00
Goldman Sachs        David Kostin           1,250      $100.00
HSBC                 Garry Evans            1,190
JPMorgan             Thomas Lee             1,430      $105.00
Morgan Stanley       Adam Parker                       $103.20
Oppenheimer          Brian Belski           1,400      $101.00
RBC                  Myles Zyblock                     $101.00
UBS**                Jonathan Golub         1,325       $99.00
Wells Fargo          Gina Martin Adams      1,360      $101.99
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean                                        1,348      $102.31
Median                                      1,345      $102.00
High                                        1,500      $106.00
Low                                         1,190       $99.00

PGA and Statistics

Came across this interesting collection of papers on golf statistics.
The Wharton paper on Loss Aversion is very interesting. Golf pros put better for par than for birdie. A bias that cost the best players 1.2m in prize money a year.
Pros also make 99.2% of the puts of 3 feet or less, pros make less than 50% of puts longer than 8 feet.

Ray Dalio - a long profile

From the New Yoker

Soros Retiring

Bloomberg has the story.

This looks so easy

Oil Demand exceeds production

Don't blame speculators for the high oil price. Here is a chart from the economist showing how oil consumption now exceeds production.

Oil Copper Spread

Prof Krugman highlights the following chart:

Copper is mainly driven by economic factors while oil both by eco and geopolitical risks and both commodities now seem to tell a different story.