Historical Oil Shocks

With Oil above 90 USD here is a timely paper from prof Hamilton. Added to the reading pile. The prof has a summary here.
He fears we may soon have to add a line to the following table.

Summary of significant events since World War II. Source: Hamilton (2011).

Gasoline shortages	Price increase	Price controls	Key factors	Business cycle peak
Nov 47-Dec 47	Nov 47-Jan 48 (37%)	no (threatened)	strong demand, supply constraints	Nov 48
May 52	Jun 53 (10%)	yes	strike, controls lifted	Jul 53
Nov 56-Dec 56 (Europe)	Jan 57-Feb 57 (9%)	yes (Europe)	Suez Crisis	Aug 57
none	none	no	---	Apr 60
none	Feb 69 (7%) Nov 70 (8%)	no	strike, strong demand, supply constraints	Dec 69
Jun 73 Dec 73-Mar 74	Apr 73-Sep 73 (16%) Nov 73-Feb 74 (51%)	yes	strong demand, supply constraints, OAPEC embargo	Nov 73
May 79-Jul 79	May 79-Jan 80 (57%)	yes	Iranian revolution	Jan 80
none	Nov 80-Feb 81 (45%)	yes	Iran-Iraq War, controls lifted	Jul 81
none	Aug 90-Oct 90 (93%)	no	Gulf War I	Jul 90
none	Dec 99-Nov 00 (38%)	no	strong demand	Mar 01
none	Nov 02-Mar 03 (28%)	no	Venezuela unrest, Gulf War II	none
none	Feb 07-Jun 08 (145%)	no	strong demand, stagnant supply	Dec 07

Outlook 2011

It s the time for this again. Bloomberg lists the strategists forecasts for 2011.

Firm                 Strategist           2011 Close   2011 EPS
===============================================================
Bank of America      David Bianco           1,400       $93.00
Bank of Montreal*    Ben Joyce              1,350       $90.00
Barclays             Barry Knapp            1,420       $91.00
Citigroup**          Tobias Levkovich       1,400       $96.50
Credit Suisse        Douglas Cliggott       1,250       $91.00
Deutsche Bank        Binky Chadha           1,550       $96.00
Goldman Sachs        David Kostin           1,500       $96.00
HSBC                 Garry Evans            1,430
JPMorgan             Thomas Lee             1,425       $94.00
Morgan Stanley       Adam Parker            1,238       $93.00
Oppenheimer          Brian Belski           1,325       $88.50
RBC                  Myles Zyblock                      $88.00
UBS                  Jonathan Golub         1,325       $96.00
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean                                        1,384       $92.75
Median                                      1,400       $93.00
High                                        1,550       $96.50
Low                                         1,238       $88.00

  * BMO’s forecast is a rolling 12-month projection.
  ** Citigroup’s estimate for S&P 500 profit is from Steven

So roughly 8.5% upisde from current level.

Last year's forecasts were pretty much spot on. With Median 2012e EPS currently at 102 it is not unreasonable to expect a new record for the S&P within the next 12-18 months. Time will tell.