Historical lags between end of recession, unemployment rate peak, and beginning of funds rate tightening cycle
End of Recession | Unempl. rate peak | Beginning of funds rate tightening cycle | Months from end of recession to unempl. peak | Months from unempl. peak to beginning of funds rate tightening cycle |
Nov 2001 | Jun 2003 | Jul 2004 | 19 | 13 |
Mar 1991 | Jun 1992 | Feb 1994 | 15 | 20 |
Nov 1982 | Dec 1982 | Jun 1983 | 1 | 6 |
(Jul 1980) | | | | |
Mar 1975 | May 1975 | May 1976 | 2 | 12 |
Nov 1970 | Aug 1971* | Mar 1972 | 9 | 7 |
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, National Bureau of Economic Research, and Federal Reserve Board
Rates could stay low for a while
No comments:
Post a Comment