Fed Fund Rates and Taylor Rule

Paul Krugman has the chart and concludes: "Monetary tightening shouldn’t be on the agenda for a long, long time."

Housing Starts and Unemployment Rate

CalculatedRisk has the chart and the explanations on a very close correlation between housing starts and the unemployment rate. Housing leads the economy and employment by 12 to 18months. According to CR this suggests unemployment may peak in spring 2010. Could central banks be tightening this coming summer? Earlier than suggested here.