Monday, January 17, 2011

Historical Oil Shocks

With Oil above 90 USD here is a timely paper from prof Hamilton. Added to the reading pile. The prof has a summary here.
He fears we may soon have to add a line to the following table.

Summary of significant events since World War II. Source: Hamilton (2011).
Gasoline
shortages
Price
increase
Price
controls
Key
factors
Business cycle
peak
Nov 47-Dec 47 Nov 47-Jan 48
(37%)
no
(threatened)
strong demand,
supply constraints
Nov 48
May 52 Jun 53
(10%)
yes strike,
controls lifted
Jul 53
Nov 56-Dec 56
(Europe)
Jan 57-Feb 57
(9%)
yes
(Europe)
Suez Crisis Aug 57
none none no --- Apr 60
none Feb 69 (7%)
Nov 70 (8%)
no strike, strong demand,
supply constraints
Dec 69
Jun 73

Dec 73-Mar 74
Apr 73-Sep 73
(16%)
Nov 73-Feb 74
(51%)
yes strong demand,
supply constraints,
OAPEC embargo
Nov 73
May 79-Jul 79 May 79-Jan 80
(57%)
yes Iranian revolution Jan 80
none Nov 80-Feb 81
(45%)
yes Iran-Iraq War,
controls lifted
Jul 81
none Aug 90-Oct 90
(93%)
no Gulf War I Jul 90
none Dec 99-Nov 00
(38%)
no strong demand Mar 01
none Nov 02-Mar 03
(28%)
no Venezuela unrest,
Gulf War II
none
none Feb 07-Jun 08
(145%)
no strong demand,
stagnant supply
Dec 07

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Outlook 2011

It s the time for this again. Bloomberg lists the strategists forecasts for 2011.

Firm                 Strategist           2011 Close   2011 EPS
===============================================================
Bank of America David Bianco 1,400 $93.00
Bank of Montreal* Ben Joyce 1,350 $90.00
Barclays Barry Knapp 1,420 $91.00
Citigroup** Tobias Levkovich 1,400 $96.50
Credit Suisse Douglas Cliggott 1,250 $91.00
Deutsche Bank Binky Chadha 1,550 $96.00
Goldman Sachs David Kostin 1,500 $96.00
HSBC Garry Evans 1,430
JPMorgan Thomas Lee 1,425 $94.00
Morgan Stanley Adam Parker 1,238 $93.00
Oppenheimer Brian Belski 1,325 $88.50
RBC Myles Zyblock $88.00
UBS Jonathan Golub 1,325 $96.00
---------------------------------------------------------------
Mean 1,384 $92.75
Median 1,400 $93.00
High 1,550 $96.50
Low 1,238 $88.00

* BMO’s forecast is a rolling 12-month projection.
** Citigroup’s estimate for S&P 500 profit is from Steven

So roughly 8.5% upisde from current level.

Last year's forecasts
were pretty much spot on. With Median 2012e EPS currently at 102 it is not unreasonable to expect a new record for the S&P within the next 12-18 months. Time will tell.